A Glimpse Into The Crystal Ball

After ACCA honored its award winners, Connor Lokar of ITR Consulting gave attendees a glimpse at the future of HVAC.

Lokar says that through first half of 2018 the country will see continued economic growth, but the second half of the year we will start seeing an economic dip.

Two key points he made are that economic growth or contraction has nothing to do with the political affiliation of the sitting President nor does tax reform.

Lokar shared a lot of data that shows how the leading indicators explain where the economy will go.

He says all this information is available, you must seek it out and use it. If you can have a three month lead time, it can  make better decisions for your company.

He encourages contractors to weather the upcoming downturn, because unlike the Great Recession, the upcoming downturn (2019) will not create an overwhelming number of people looking for work. He also says push through the price increases for similar reasons.

He says there are five negative factors that will create the upcoming mild recession:

  • Rising interest rates
  • The U.S. stock market
  • Inflation and declining savings
  • International  trade & NAFTA
  • U.S. debt

The key actionable take-aways that Connor says will help you move forward:

  1. Plan for continued overall expansion during 2018
  2. Expect growth in the Single Family housing and commercial markets this year, stay wary of the Multi Family side
  3. Invest in operational efficiency – productivity has to match wage increases
  4. Budget for higher wages and input costs – Raise your prices!
  5. Follow your Leading Indicators à Make sure great decisions meet great timing
  6. Know where you and your markets are in the business cycle

If you would like a copy of Connor’s Presentation, download it here.

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